WEBVTT X-TIMESTAMP-MAP=LOCAL:00:00:00.000,MPEGTS:0 00:00.000 --> 00:02.029 JULIE HYMAN: Well, what should they do? 00:02.029 --> 00:04.250 Should they wait or should they move ahead? 00:04.250 --> 00:06.860 I mean, you know, if you've been tracking the housing 00:06.860 --> 00:08.180 market for a long time and you're 00:08.180 --> 00:11.030 seeing these sort of confusing conditions, 00:11.030 --> 00:14.390 what does history tell us about what could happen when 00:14.390 --> 00:16.693 prices will start to soften? 00:16.693 --> 00:17.960 DANIELLE HALE: Yeah, so trying to time 00:17.960 --> 00:19.400 the housing market is a lot like trying 00:19.400 --> 00:20.330 to time the stock market. 00:20.330 --> 00:21.980 It's really, really difficult to do. 00:21.980 --> 00:24.650 Much easier to do with the benefit of hindsight. 00:24.650 --> 00:27.350 But for households who are at this point where they're 00:27.350 --> 00:29.690 thinking about making a move, ready to make a purchase, 00:29.690 --> 00:32.299 and trying to decide whether to go forward or to wait, 00:32.299 --> 00:35.480 my advice would be this, inventory is still 00:35.480 --> 00:37.340 incredibly low, and that is the binding 00:37.340 --> 00:38.720 constraint for most households. 00:38.720 --> 00:40.760 It's hard to find a home that you like, 00:40.760 --> 00:42.950 that fits your needs, that meets your budget. 00:42.950 --> 00:45.050 If you can do that in today's market, 00:45.050 --> 00:47.540 I would say that's a sign that you can move forward. 00:47.540 --> 00:49.850 If you can't find a home that fits your needs 00:49.850 --> 00:52.670 and your budget in this market, which is tough with prices 00:52.670 --> 00:54.740 close to high, you know, long-term highs, 00:54.740 --> 00:56.750 I think that's a time to, you know, 00:56.750 --> 00:59.120 step back, reevaluate your options, 00:59.120 --> 01:01.920 maybe consider renting for a longer period of time 01:01.920 --> 01:03.690 before moving forward. 01:03.690 --> 01:05.940 JOSH LIPTON: And you mentioned, Danielle, inventory here. 01:05.940 --> 01:10.140 So the month's supply of, it looks like existing, 01:10.140 --> 01:14.430 homes, Danielle, for sale, they edged up from 3.4 to 3.6. 01:14.430 --> 01:17.400 What would a balanced market look like, Danielle? 01:17.400 --> 01:19.230 Is it more like-- is it five months? 01:19.230 --> 01:21.130 Is it six months? 01:21.130 --> 01:22.570 DANIELLE HALE: Yeah, historically, 01:22.570 --> 01:24.400 in the five to six-month range, it's 01:24.400 --> 01:27.340 been a long time since we've been anywhere near that range. 01:27.340 --> 01:29.200 So you know it could be that the market is 01:29.200 --> 01:32.230 shifting to a new normal where it can be 01:32.230 --> 01:34.300 in balance at a lower supply. 01:34.300 --> 01:37.460 But I think it's fair to say, with prices still going up, 01:37.460 --> 01:38.920 we're far from that. 01:38.920 --> 01:40.330 And, you know, our research shows 01:40.330 --> 01:43.780 that we haven't had enough home building over the last decade. 01:43.780 --> 01:45.640 And that hasn't really changed. 01:45.640 --> 01:47.740 We are seeing new construction, especially 01:47.740 --> 01:51.070 on the single-family side, stay relatively elevated. 01:51.070 --> 01:53.080 We're on pace for close to 900,000 01:53.080 --> 01:56.110 single-family housing starts this year, which is good news. 01:56.110 --> 01:58.510 And it's helping to relieve some of the inventory 01:58.510 --> 01:59.800 and supply pressure. 01:59.800 --> 02:01.900 But it's not quite enough. 02:01.900 --> 02:04.630 And so, for most households, trying to find a home 02:04.630 --> 02:06.580 that fits the needs and the budget is 02:06.580 --> 02:09.030 really the biggest challenge.